Having just returned from a few days in Orlando – was there for the NFMA conference and did a little visit around the Disney complex – this week’s commentary takes us from one section of the park to another. I start with a look at Food Stamp growth and Housing that highlights the point of last week’s commentary (unevenness) and then move on to Exports and State GDP before concluding with a look at Defaults and Bankruptcy.
A Positive Sign Around Food Stamps and Unevenness in Housing
On Friday, the Department of Agriculture released data that went little-noticed by the mainstream media but is worth highlighting in terms of potentially good news. As the map below displays, most States saw a decline in Food Stamp Participation from one year ago (only five showed an increase). While you can argue the participation rate was near all-time highs and had been growing for the past few years that it had nowhere to go but down, the reality is that the numbers do show movement in the right direction.
DIVER Analytics, Map Module, US Dept. of Agriculture
On the housing front, the news continues to be uneven (see last week’s commentary). The Homeowner Vacancy rate is up in 22 States (but down in 28) while the Homeownership Rate is up in 21 States. This, according to the USCB for the first quarter of 2014 v. the same period in 2013. I point this out to highlight the continuing unevenness of the recovery. To identify those States faring better, simply use the DIVER Analytics Filter module on the noted datasets.
Exports, GDP and Energy
As regular readers know, I view the State’s interaction with the global economy to be important. This has to do with the reality that States do export and do get a portion of their GDP from our friends around the world. For 2013, State’s exports around the world ranged from 4.9% of State’s GDP to over 31%. The pretty good news is that, for the period March 2013 to March 2014, 28 States have seen their exports increase (this, despite the bad winter – excuse only used when convenient). The below chart shows the percent increase in exports year on year for 14 of those States. How this translates into jobs and revenue is something to keep an eye on.
DIVER Data Services, USCB
Staying on the subject of State’s GDP, last week I listened as a speaker discussed how State’s with higher energy production had greater GDP growth. Very matter of fact and quite convincing. As my wife says, if people say something with conviction, many will believe it is true. While seemingly logical, I thought it would be interesting to explore this assertion and also take a look at several measures of a State’s well-being. For purposes of this analysis, I took a look at the US Energy Information Administration’s “Rankings: Total Energy Production, 2011 (trillion Btu)” (latest available). Without giving away the punchline, once again, my wife is right. As you look at the table, the critical fact to remember is that, no matter how expert one professes to be and no matter how confident in their statement, the details are what matters. The generalization made simply doesn’t hold water. Green shows the top seven and red the bottom seven in terms of energy production.
Energy Producing States v. Lowest Energy Producing States
DIVER Geo Score
Data Set/Locations
GDP Growth (2012)
April 2014
Trend April 2013-2014
US Value
2.46%
5
5
Texas
4.82%
5.6
9.2
Wyoming
0.23%
9.4
1.4
Louisiana
1.49%
3.8
8.6
Pennsylvania
1.71%
5.4
3.2
West Virginia
3.27%
2.4
7
Kentucky
1.42%
0.4
0.4
Colorado
2.11%
6.2
6
New Hampshire
0.52%
9.2
3
Massachusetts
2.24%
8
3.6
Vermont
1.15%
9.6
3.8
Nevada
1.45%
0.2
9.6
Hawaii
1.61%
9
7.2
Delaware
0.19%
5.2
1.6
Rhode Island
1.40%
3.6
4.2
DIVER Analytics, Filter Module, BEA, Lumesis, Moody’s and S&P.
Defaults and Bankruptcy (and not talking about Detroit)
Every so often, I come across an article that points out that bankruptcies and/or defaults are lower than last year, not as bad as some predicted (and they are not Meredith) or some other observation. It seems, with each of these articles, the author sites highly credible resources and nuances that distinguish between what they deem to truly be a default or bankruptcy and what is not. It seems to me, especially with key regulators making their respective voices heard around disclosure and proper diligence in anything muni, that one should also consider defaults and bankruptcies as the same are required to be reported (in other words, irrespective of the reason or the fact that it was subsequently cured). In this regard, we do track monthly filings and offer some data points below.
April 2014 Defaults Year to date 59 bonds have been defaulted on from eight Issuers. Below is what was reported to and by the MSRB for April 2014:
State
County
Issuer
CUSIP
Massachusetts
MASSACHUSETTS ST DEV FIN AGY REV
57583U
Michigan
Wayne
DETROIT MICH
251093
New York
Orange
SOUTH BLOOMING GROVE N Y
836690
New York
Erie
MARILLA N Y
56781E
Texas
HFDC CENT TEX INC REV
42833N
Texas
HFDC CENT TEX INC RETIREMENT FAC REV
42833R
Wisconsin
Dane
CROSS PLAINS WIS
227561
Wisconsin
Marinette
MARINETTE WIS WTRWKS REV
568525
April 2014 Bankruptcies Year to date 25 bonds have been the subject of a bankruptcy filing. Below is what was reported to and by the MSRB for April 2014:
State
County
Issuer
CUSIP
California
Sonoma
PALM DRIVE HEALTH CARE DIST CALIF CTFS PARTN
69663M
California
Sonoma
PALM DRIVE HEALTH CARE DIST CALIF PARCEL TAX REV
69663P
Indiana
Wabash
NORTH MANCHESTER IND ECONOMIC DEV REV
660708
Massachusetts
MASSACHUSETTS ST DEV FIN AGY REV
57583U
Mississippi
MISSISSIPPI DEV BK SPL OBLIG
60534Q
This week the team continues its travels around the US with Mike visiting Louisville while Gregg and Pete will be in St. Louis.
Have a great week.
Gregg L. Bienstock Esq. CEO & Co-Founder, Lumesis, Inc.
Food Stamps, Housing GDP and Default Filings
May 12, 2014
Having just returned from a few days in Orlando – was there for the NFMA conference and did a little visit around the Disney complex – this week’s commentary takes us from one section of the park to another. I start with a look at Food Stamp growth and Housing that highlights the point of last week’s commentary (unevenness) and then move on to Exports and State GDP before concluding with a look at Defaults and Bankruptcy.
A Positive Sign Around Food Stamps and Unevenness in Housing
On Friday, the Department of Agriculture released data that went little-noticed by the mainstream media but is worth highlighting in terms of potentially good news. As the map below displays, most States saw a decline in Food Stamp Participation from one year ago (only five showed an increase). While you can argue the participation rate was near all-time highs and had been growing for the past few years that it had nowhere to go but down, the reality is that the numbers do show movement in the right direction.
DIVER Analytics, Map Module, US Dept. of Agriculture
On the housing front, the news continues to be uneven (see last week’s commentary). The Homeowner Vacancy rate is up in 22 States (but down in 28) while the Homeownership Rate is up in 21 States. This, according to the USCB for the first quarter of 2014 v. the same period in 2013. I point this out to highlight the continuing unevenness of the recovery. To identify those States faring better, simply use the DIVER Analytics Filter module on the noted datasets.
Exports, GDP and Energy
As regular readers know, I view the State’s interaction with the global economy to be important. This has to do with the reality that States do export and do get a portion of their GDP from our friends around the world. For 2013, State’s exports around the world ranged from 4.9% of State’s GDP to over 31%. The pretty good news is that, for the period March 2013 to March 2014, 28 States have seen their exports increase (this, despite the bad winter – excuse only used when convenient). The below chart shows the percent increase in exports year on year for 14 of those States. How this translates into jobs and revenue is something to keep an eye on.
DIVER Data Services, USCB
Staying on the subject of State’s GDP, last week I listened as a speaker discussed how State’s with higher energy production had greater GDP growth. Very matter of fact and quite convincing. As my wife says, if people say something with conviction, many will believe it is true. While seemingly logical, I thought it would be interesting to explore this assertion and also take a look at several measures of a State’s well-being. For purposes of this analysis, I took a look at the US Energy Information Administration’s “Rankings: Total Energy Production, 2011 (trillion Btu)” (latest available). Without giving away the punchline, once again, my wife is right. As you look at the table, the critical fact to remember is that, no matter how expert one professes to be and no matter how confident in their statement, the details are what matters. The generalization made simply doesn’t hold water. Green shows the top seven and red the bottom seven in terms of energy production.
DIVER Analytics, Filter Module, BEA, Lumesis, Moody’s and S&P.
Defaults and Bankruptcy (and not talking about Detroit)
Every so often, I come across an article that points out that bankruptcies and/or defaults are lower than last year, not as bad as some predicted (and they are not Meredith) or some other observation. It seems, with each of these articles, the author sites highly credible resources and nuances that distinguish between what they deem to truly be a default or bankruptcy and what is not. It seems to me, especially with key regulators making their respective voices heard around disclosure and proper diligence in anything muni, that one should also consider defaults and bankruptcies as the same are required to be reported (in other words, irrespective of the reason or the fact that it was subsequently cured). In this regard, we do track monthly filings and offer some data points below.
April 2014 Defaults Year to date 59 bonds have been defaulted on from eight Issuers. Below is what was reported to and by the MSRB for April 2014:
April 2014 Bankruptcies Year to date 25 bonds have been the subject of a bankruptcy filing. Below is what was reported to and by the MSRB for April 2014:
This week the team continues its travels around the US with Mike visiting Louisville while Gregg and Pete will be in St. Louis.
Have a great week.
Gregg L. Bienstock Esq.
CEO & Co-Founder, Lumesis, Inc.
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