April 18th, 2016
Business Leaders Polled by New York Fed Continue to Expect Improvement
The Business Leaders Survey released this morning by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York reflected relatively flat business conditions. The weakest element was the Business Climate (-18.7) assessment. The strongest elements were Prices Paid (+32.8) and Wages (+35.8).
Since ’13, the survey has indicated optimism about future conditions. That optimism continues. The average assessment of future conditions in six months is +29.7. Unfortunately, the assessment of future conditions has not been a good predictor of actual conditions.
Comparing the assessment of future conditions to the assessment of actual conditions assessment 6 months later shows that over the last decade, many participants seemed to be basing their predictions mostly on current circumstances. This decade, the correlation has been low, and almost always too optimistic.
Have a great week,
Michael Craft, CFA
Business Leaders Polled by New York Fed Continue to Expect Improvement
April 18th, 2016
Business Leaders Polled by New York Fed Continue to Expect Improvement
The Business Leaders Survey released this morning by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York reflected relatively flat business conditions. The weakest element was the Business Climate (-18.7) assessment. The strongest elements were Prices Paid (+32.8) and Wages (+35.8).
Since ’13, the survey has indicated optimism about future conditions. That optimism continues. The average assessment of future conditions in six months is +29.7. Unfortunately, the assessment of future conditions has not been a good predictor of actual conditions.
Comparing the assessment of future conditions to the assessment of actual conditions assessment 6 months later shows that over the last decade, many participants seemed to be basing their predictions mostly on current circumstances. This decade, the correlation has been low, and almost always too optimistic.
Have a great week,
Michael Craft, CFA